I reached a million views on 2017 September 27th.
Near the start of September, I had wondered if I would reach a million before my 7th anniversary, which is today. I used the traffic to this site to predict when I would hit the mark.
library(ggplot2) library(dplyr) library(cowplot) # traffic as of 2017 September 4th d <- read.csv('https://davetang.org/site_stat/blog_20170904.csv') d$date <- as.Date(d$date) d$day <- factor(weekdays(d$date), levels = c('Monday', 'Tuesday', 'Wednesday', 'Thursday', 'Friday', 'Saturday', 'Sunday')) d$weekend <- grepl(pattern = "^S", x = d$day) d$month <- factor(months(d$date), levels = month.name) d$quarter <- factor(quarters(d$date)) d$year <- format(d$date, "%Y") d$cumsum <- cumsum(d$views) group_by(d, year) %>% summarise(views = sum(views)) # A tibble: 5 x 2 year views <chr> <int> 1 2013 87415 2 2014 253844 3 2015 283973 4 2016 223065 5 2017 135922 head(cumsum(d$views))  130 399 657 803 855 908 ggplot(d, aes(x = date, y = cumsum(views))) + geom_point() + geom_smooth(method='lm')
Use only 2017 data to predict.
d_2017 <- d[d$year >= 2017,] head(d_2017) date views day weekend month quarter year cumsum 1441 2017-01-01 117 Sunday TRUE January Q1 2017 848414 1442 2017-01-02 220 Monday FALSE January Q1 2017 848634 1443 2017-01-03 453 Tuesday FALSE January Q1 2017 849087 1444 2017-01-04 520 Wednesday FALSE January Q1 2017 849607 1445 2017-01-05 549 Thursday FALSE January Q1 2017 850156 1446 2017-01-06 382 Friday FALSE January Q1 2017 850538 ggplot(d_2017, aes(date, cumsum)) + geom_point() + geom_smooth(method = 'lm')
Perform a linear regression.
fit <- lm(cumsum ~ date, d_2017) # will I hit a million before my 7th anniversary? predict(fit, data.frame(date = as.Date('2017-10-01'))) 1 1001525 predict(fit, data.frame(date = as.Date('2017-09-28'))) 1 999830.9 # not far off the real date predict(fit, data.frame(date = as.Date('2017-09-29'))) 1 1000396
I have mentioned the traffic to this site several times before. The main reason I do so is because it’s one of the means by which I assess whether this site is still relevant and useful to people. I can only assume that some of the visitors have found the posts useful.
What’s new since my last anniversary post? The biggest change is that I have started working with single cell data. In addition, I have been a bit more active with blogging. The period between my 5th and 6th anniversary, I only wrote 13 posts. Between my 6th and 7th anniversary, I wrote 29 posts, which is over two a month, and was my aim! I hope to keep it up.
As usual, let me know if you have found my blog useful. It really does motivate me. Have fun.
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